Demo · Commodities & LNG
Where should the cargo go?
A price spread between Europe and Asia only matters after shipping. The longer route costs more charter days and loses more cargo to boil-off, and canal fees can swing the answer. This model works out the shipping cost per MMBtu and the margin for one US Gulf cargo on each route, using inputs you can change.
Margin per cargo, by route
When charter rates spike, long routes lose first
Shipping cost per MMBtu delivered on each route as the daily charter rate changes. A longer voyage ties up the ship for more days, so its cost climbs faster when ships are scarce.
How it's calculated
Round-trip days = distance out and back at the chosen speed, plus 3 days in port. Shipping cost = charter rate × round-trip days + return-leg fuel + canal fees (both directions) + port costs, divided by the MMBtu delivered. The ship loads 98.5% of capacity, loses the boil-off rate each laden day (burned as fuel on the way), and 1 m³ of LNG is taken as 23 MMBtu (it varies with gas composition). The US supply cost is 115% of Henry Hub plus the liquefaction fee, the common US export contract formula. Margin = delivered price − supply cost − shipping cost.
Simplifications: fuel use doesn't rise with speed here, so faster always looks better on cost; in reality fuel burn rises steeply with speed and owners slow-steam when it pays. Distances are approximate sailing distances from the US Gulf; edit the table to use your own. Canal availability (e.g., Panama draft restrictions) and regas/terminal fees at the destination are not modeled.